十载投资,路在何方,扎根本土,放眼世界

Nuffnang

Thursday, February 27, 2014

Facebook与Whatsapp联婚(加场)

网络还有很多讨论,这场大婚太红了,红过全叔的100桌(顺便广告《一路有你》创下大马电影最高票房)。因为这场联婚很红,所以加场(part 2)。还没阅读part 1,下面有个连址。

Part 1:Facebook与Whatsapp联婚
http://aliinvest.blogspot.com/2014/02/facebookwhatsapp.html


  1. 高价190亿,值吗?看看人家如何分析,估计(2019)whatsapp用户会达10亿,每个收$0.98美金在T-1年,cash margin50%,7%折扣,大概收益176亿。如果用6.5%折扣,那是191亿美金,或用55%cash margin就194亿美金。
  2. 190亿分由支付40亿现金+160亿股票+30亿限制性股票。那只是40亿现金,其他是(无中生有的)股票。
  3. 190亿分给区区只有55人的whatsapp职员。从生意角度看,小小的公司,大大的赚钱。小而大。
  4. 面子书是免费的,是靠广告收益,而whatsapp是无广告但收费软件。那么收购后,面子书就有了多一条财路。原本收益从企业广告,再加whatsapp收费取之用户。那不就是开源。
  5. 很多人问,现在买fb股票会不会太迟呢?当这消息公布前,fb股价是$67.30,今天(26Feb2014) fb股价是$69.26,涨了2.9%。会不会太迟的问题,我的意见是:你是看长期还是短期。


Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Facebook与Whatsapp联婚

Facebook 以190亿收购 Whatsapp,最近最高价的科技收购个案。


是太贵,还是策略,在网上找了一些资料与大家分享

1:时间上,Mark用了十天”谈婚论嫁“,大部分时间是谈聘金。在Mobile World Congress(24-27 Feb 2014)前公布这消息,使他在这大会中成了焦点。原本媒体关注Google Nexus 6(购Motorola后)首次发布新机Moto X,还有Samsung Galaxy S5,都被面子书Whatsapp大婚盖过了,赢了一个马鼻。赢了时机

2:面子书创办人兼首席执行员(Mark Zuckerberg )马克 · 扎克伯格说:面子书与Whatsapp是绝配“great fit"。两家有共同点是把人与人联系,面子书2004年从互联网电脑时代崛起,2009年Whatsapp从智能手机时代崛起。当今智能手机时代,面子书显而慢了脚步,自家的Messenger不是很受广用。这项并购可说是取其之长,补己之短

3:面子书每月有120亿活跃用户,Whatsapp则有4 亿 5000 万活跃用户。当然这些用户大多数是重叠。因为我也是同时用两个软件。但是不要小看Whatsapp的威力,每天有100 万新用户!面子书现在可说是成熟期,也是瓶颈,whatsapp是新元素,新出路

4:当年面子书的成长率令人惊讶,再看看以下图表,Whatsapp在短短4年里超越了当年面子书,gmail的记录,创下惊人的成长率。试问有多少家公司能做到?


5:190亿,贵?whatsapp为我们普罗大众省下不少sms的钱。另一方面令通讯公司亏了很多钱。通讯公司一年少了330亿的sms收入,你还有用sms吗??答案:“很少”

6:很多分析员都疏忽一点,“什么都不做的成本”。2008/2009年Nokia/ BlackBerry 面对iPhone和Android的攻击,什么都不做。他们保持现有评估来预测未来几年,这种“什么都不做”没有被衡量。所谓不进则退,后来的结果不用我再提。什么都不做是有代价。

7:假设面子书错过这段“姻缘”,被其他情敌抢了。苏州过后无艇搭,又人老珠黄那时后悔莫及。珍惜这姻缘,创造将来。

Part 2:Facebook与Whatsapp联婚(加场)
http://aliinvest.blogspot.com/2014/02/facebookwhatsapppart2.html

Friday, February 21, 2014

真真【荷兰股】SBM


SBM Offshore,全球第二大FPSO公司。在阿姆斯特丹交易所上市,真是荷兰股!
今年一月股价暴跌约30%


因为贪污丑闻。被荷兰一家杂志记者引用Wikipedia报道。该公司牵涉2.5亿美元的贿赂,也是近期最大的全球企业行贿丑闻之一。

贿赂,在商业是很普遍的,尤其在油气领域,牵涉很大的金额。这次曝光后,相信没有一家油公司会颁发项目给SBM了。每个都置身其外,不想牵涉在内。公司名誉臭了,未来真是岌岌可危。真真【荷兰股】

不过这次事件,可能会造就机会给其他竞争者,如BW Offshore, Modec,  Bumi Armada 等等。

Thursday, February 20, 2014

Facebook Buy WhatsApp For $19 billion



2005 GOOGLE acquired Android $50 million
2006 GOOGLE acquired Youtube $1.65 billion
2011 GOOGLE acquired Motorola $12.5 billion
2012 Facebook acquired Instagram $1 billion
2013 GOOGLE acquired Waze $966 million
2014 Facebook acquired Whatsapp $19 billion


Monday, February 17, 2014

中国高铁外交开向全世界

今天看到这新闻【中国高铁外交开向全世界
新闻链接: http://ow.ly/tGLLz



如果事成,中国将会更强大。高铁打通东西国家,能源,货品陆路运输缩短。也避开海盗,风暴的危险。改变未来世界经济的重要点,真是伟大的工程。


但是对马来西亚就失去天赋有利的地理环境。马来西亚位于传统东西方国家海线运输的中间,也是必经之地,就大大受影响。完了。完了。


有人欢喜,有人愁。

Friday, February 14, 2014

中西情人节14.2.2014

亲手制作的玫瑰花+贺卡
中西情人节快乐
14.2.2014

原图

Visa vs MasterCard


Visa and MasterCard don’t issue credit cards
Many people may confuse, Visa and MasterCard did not issue the credit card. Actually, the company make money from processing payment transaction between the point of sale (POS) and the bank. They have nothing to do with your interest rates, reward program, late charge and customer service issues.

$100 Payment on Credit Card Transaction Breakdown
When you spend $100 purchase, $98 goes to merchant, $1.50 goes to issuing bank, $0.35 goes to processor, hardware provider and merchant service provider (MSP), only $0.15 goes to card network company.


Duopoly 
Visa and MasterCard are both widely accepted in over 30 million cash machines and 170 countries worldwide and it is rare to find a location that will accept one and not the other. Visa and MasterCard dominate more than 80% global transaction, 50.1% and 33.5% respectively. Not only credit card payment service, the debit card transactions are also via Visa and MasterCard network, total 95.8% of global debit card transaction.


Visa or MasterCard, which should I choose?
Which credit card network to choose? Visa and MasterCard are pretty similar.  Since the rewards and benefits are determined by the issuing bank, ultimately it is the issuing bank that controls.

Wish to know about more credit card benefit? you can visit http://generationsxyz.blogspot.com/

Financial Result
I will compare the FY 2013 financial result of both Visa and MasterCard.

Let start with revenue, Visa recorded $11.78 bn by grew 13.02%, MasterCard reported $8.35bn by grew 12.92%.  Visa is slightly higher growth than MasterCard

Then look at the operating margin of both companies. Visa performs $7.22bn operating income, which is 61.29%. However, MasterCard reported operating income $4.5bn which is 53.89%.  Visa wins in second round with better operating efficiency.

We go net profit margin between both companies. Visa has net income of $4.98bn, and MasterCard has $3.12bn. Visa wins again here as its net profit margin of 42.3% which is substantially higher than MasterCard 37.3%.

We move to compare growth rate past 5 years.  Visa grew EPS from $2.79 (2009) to $7.59 (2013) by 54%p.a.  MasterCard has EPS from $1.12 (2009) to $2.56 (2013) by 46%. Visa has another score on growth.

Both companies are giving dividend every quarter. Visa paid total $1.32 in FY2013, MasterCard paid total $0.21 (Note: based on estimated, Q4 dividend is not yet to announce, and share split 1:10 on 22 Jan 2014). Visa wins by yield 0.67% compare to MasterCard 0.2%.

How about the valuation ratio of both companies
Visa:
Valuation Ratios
Price/Earnings (TTM)28.31x
Price/Sales (TTM)11.15x
Price/Book (MRQ)5.21x
Price/Cash Flow (TTM)24.47x
TTM = Trailing Twelve Months 
MRQ = Most Recent Quarter

MasterCard:
Valuation Ratios
Price/Earnings (TTM)29.79x
Price/Sales (TTM)10.92x
Price/Book (MRQ)12.18x
Price/Cash Flow (TTM)27.01x
TTM = Trailing Twelve Months 
MRQ = Most Recent Quarter

Price/Earning and Price/Sales ratios of Visa and MasterCard are close to each other. However, Price/Book value of Visa is 5.21x much lower than MasterCard's 12.18x. Visa is seem worth than MasterCard.

Conclusion
Based on all metrics above, the winner is VISA.

Disclosure
I have long position in Visa. I wrote this article to express own opinions. When you are investing kindly to consult your financial adviser.

Thursday, February 13, 2014

Can it work? Feng Shui Index

风水指标
是灵验,是巧合,还是对号入座呢
是迷信,还是科学
风水源自易经,数千年历史
由古至今,应该有它Power之处

 2009年,首三个月有波动,过后一路往上升

 2010,上半年波动,过后节节上升

 2011, 全年都波动,年终稍微向上

 2012,年中低点,过后一路往上升

 2013,上半年一路往上升,八月回调过后有波动

2014呢??

(资料来自CLSA)

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Visa: Ex-Dividend Reminder

Visa will pay its quarterly dividend of $0.40 on 3/4/14. Ex-date on 2/12/14.
Below are dividend history charts for Visa since 2008:



DeclaredRecordPayableClass A
Common Stock
Class B
Common Stock *
Class C
Common Stock
06-11-0808-15-0808-29-08$0.105$0.075$0.105
10-15-0811-14-0812-02-08$0.105$0.075$0.105
01-22-0902-13-0903-03-09$0.105$0.066$0.105
04-22-0905-15-0906-02-09$0.105$0.066$0.105
07-22-0908-14-0909-01-09$0.105$0.061$0.105
10-20-0911-16-0912-01-09$0.125$0.073$0.125
01-20-1002-12-1003-02-10$0.125$0.073$0.125
04-20-1005-14-1006-02-10$0.125$0.073$0.125
07-21-1008-13-1009-01-10$0.125$0.069$0.125
10-20-1011-19-1012-07-10$0.15$0.077$0.15
01-26-1102-11-1103-01-11$0.15$0.077$0.15
04-21-1105-20-1106-07-11$0.15$0.073$0.15
07-21-1108-19-1109-07-11$0.15$0.073$0.15
10-18-1111-18-1112-06-11$0.22$0.107$0.22
02-01-1202-17-1203-06-12$0.22$0.094$0.22
04-26-1205-18-1206-05-12$0.22$0.094$0.22
07-19-1208-17-1209-04-12$0.22$0.094$0.22
10-24-1211-16-1212-04-12$0.33$0.139$0.33
01-30-1302-15-1303-05-13$0.33$0.139$0.33
04-23-1305-17-1306-04-13$0.33$0.139$0.33
07-16-1308-16-1309-04-13$0.33$0.139$0.33
10-23-1311-15-1312-03-13$0.40$0.168$0.40
01-29-1402-14-1403-04-14$0.40$0.168$0.40

You may interest also: Visa Q1 2014

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

30% Guaranteed 回酬


30% Guaranteed 回酬,
一听像金融诈骗,金字塔计划。有酱顺野。

不是,不是。这是太太在Ali投资的条件。
相信没有投资银行可以给那么丰厚的回酬。
我们之间的协议是30%Guaranteed 回酬,
如果有赚超过30%,那是归Ali的。
在这个股市动荡年头还是充满挑战性。
要买什么股好呢?蓝筹股,恐怕没有这回酬。
高风险的又怕。始终不是自己的钱,要谨慎。
不想为了钱唠翻。

把十千交给Ali,30%回酬是三千。
Ali还是有信心拉上补下做得到。
过去十年Ali有-28%到+55%的回酬记录。
即使没有达到30%,Ali就自掏腰包也没关系。
太太嘛,没计较。
那是
爱与承诺。


Thursday, February 6, 2014

Paperless Monetary


How much is your money expense in paper based and credit card?  The survey shows the personal consumption expenditure in cards form is doubled from year 2007 to 2017. Credit card expenditure will become more and more common and widely.

You may interest:

Sunday, February 2, 2014

MasterCard: Q4 2013


Jan. 31, 2014  MasterCard Incorporated Reports Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2013 Financial Results

  • Fourth-quarter net income of $684 million, excluding a special item, or $0.57 per diluted share
  • Fourth-quarter net income of $623 million, including a special item, or $0.52 per diluted share
  • Diluted EPS figures adjusted for the company’s ten-for-one stock split
  • Fourth-quarter net revenue increase of 12%, to $2.1 billion
  • Fourth-quarter gross dollar volume up 14% and purchase volume up 12%


Saturday, February 1, 2014

VISA: Q1 2014

Jan. 29, 2014 Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.40 per share. Payable on March 4, 2014, Ex-date on February 12, 2014.

Q4 2013 Visa Inc. Earnings Conference Call at 1/30/2014.

------------------------
RESULT (1/30/2014)

  • Broad-based net revenue growth of 11% 
  • Company repurchased 5.5 million shares during the quarter for $1.1 billion and has $4.2 billion in remaining authorization 
  • Net income for the fiscal first quarter was $1.4 billion or $2.20 per share, an increase of 9% and 14%, respectively






------------------------
Previous Quarter
VISA: Q4 2013

Facebook

Facebook share price chart
面子书在2013年8月才break even IPO offer price $38,从18日5月2012年。

Financial overview

几个季度盈利和EPS above estimation

Cash Flow
Balance Sheet

IPO后负债减低

面子书
Valuation Ratios
Price/Earnings (TTM)104.24x
Price/Sales (TTM)19.71x
Price/Book (MRQ)9.69x
Price/Cash Flow (TTM)61.79x
TTM = Trailing Twelve Months 
MRQ = Most Recent Quarter

谷歌GOOGLE
Valuation Ratios
Price/Earnings (TTM)31.5x
Price/Sales (TTM)6.34x
Price/Book (MRQ)4.37x
Price/Cash Flow (TTM)23.48x


邻客音LinkedIn
Valuation Ratios
Price/Earnings (TTM)706.92x
Price/Sales (TTM)18.31x
Price/Book (MRQ)10.01x
Price/Cash Flow (TTM)164.91x