十载投资,路在何方,扎根本土,放眼世界

Nuffnang

Wednesday, April 30, 2014

五月熊来了?!

老话:《Sell in May, and run away》

眼看牛市已经跑了5年,是老牛了吗?熊要来了吗?Ali不知道。我们不时说这股票那股票很贵,期待熊的到来,不是吗?如果真的熊来了,你有准备吗?你有现金吗?你的贷款高吗?如果你掉了工作,你还能维持多久?

那年,2008那只熊,记得那年,油价飙升到140美元一桶,每个人都说会起到200一桶,油项目很多。虽然那年熊市凶手不是原油,熊来时不关什么也不法幸免。油价跌到40美元,很多项目都喊停。Ali也一夜间没有项目做了。当年只是小工程师,没有被裁员,但是心里也很怕万一。今天收到一位在Intel工作的大学同学的电邮说他换邮址,他拿到VSS,被裁了。Ali的姐姐在HSBC也拿VSS。上次Ali没中裁员,这次没中,下次呢?

那年,投资方面,从盈利11千变亏8千,就连以为不影响的云顶,bursa通通跌,那些小型股更不用说。Ali用两年才翻身,因为住进Citigroup的套房。

虽然现在原油没有起到当年的水平,Ali常常听到有人说房价会起不会跌,仿佛当年的油价。熊是不是来了,如果你有准备,你有现金,你的贷款不高,你就不会怕,那是你的机会,买廉价股票,买廉价房屋。

以下的饼是Ali组合(29-4-2014)

Monday, April 28, 2014

Visa 2Q2014

24 Apr 2015, Visa release second quarter financial result


  • Net income $1.6B and diluted EPS of $2.52, up 26% and 31%
  • Revenue of $3.16B. (+6.8% y/y). Missed by $30M
  • Repurchased 5.1M shares of class A common stock, average price $217.61 per share
  • Dividend $0.40


威士卡(Visa)公布季度财报,Ali看盈利有进步,没有问题,可是股价就大跌5%,报$198。万事达卡也跌5%。
这季度净收入和每股收益都有双位数成长26%,31%。很好,没有多少蓝筹股有这高的成长。
有人说俄罗斯的问题会影响未来公司的盈利。

Friday, April 25, 2014

马股大庄家的股票组合

上星期分享了冷眼的股票组合,借着冷眼的声望得到热烈的收视率。(还没看的,就按这连线

大庄家

这星期,有个小主意,再分享另一个大庄家的股票组合,他是谁?他与我们息息相关,他就是鼎鼎大名,家喻户晓的EPF公积金。再次用cimb itrade来找,结果有160多间。但是要追踪这个大庄家的股票不容易,因为他是个好动儿(super active),每天大量的转手。这里的资料只是大概,只供参考。


排行榜

坐拥1400多亿的公积金投资在马股,当中最高的20名是Maybank, Pbbank, Tenaga, CIMB, RHBCap, SIME, PChem, Axiata, Petgas, Digi, MBSB, KLK, HLBank, SKPetro, Ambank, Maxis, IHH, MISC, IOICorp 和UMW。其他公司的总和占25%。


四大领域 


APPLE 2Q2014 Result

苹果利润增15%
股票拆细(1拆7)

Apple Reports Second Quarter Results

Strong iPhone Sales Drive Record March Quarter Revenue and 15 Percent EPS Growth

CUPERTINO, California—April 23, 2014—Apple® today announced financial results for its fiscal 2014 second quarter ended March 29, 2014. The Company posted quarterly revenue of $45.6 billion and quarterly net profit of $10.2 billion, or $11.62 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $43.6 billion and net profit of $9.5 billion, or $10.09 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 39.3 percent compared to 37.5 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 66 percent of the quarter’s revenue.

“We’re very proud of our quarterly results, especially our strong iPhone sales and record revenue from services,” said Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO. “We’re eagerly looking forward to introducing more new products and services that only Apple could bring to market.”

“We generated $13.5 billion in cash flow from operations and returned almost $21 billion in cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during the March quarter,” said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple’s CFO. “That brings cumulative payments under our capital return program to $66 billion.”

Apple is providing the following guidance for its fiscal 2014 third quarter:
  • revenue between $36 billion and $38 billion
  • gross margin between 37 percent and 38 percent
  • operating expenses between $4.4 billion and $4.5 billion
  • other income/(expense) of $200 million
  • tax rate of 26.1 percent

Thursday, April 24, 2014

facebook 1Q2014 Result

面子书季度财报:

- EPS $0.25 vs $0.09 (1Q 2013)
超出分析员预测。之前预测是$0.18,在财报前一天Citigroup 提高预测到$0.24。出炉每股收益是$0.25,相比去年同期的$0.09 ,成长177%

- 2014第一季度的总收入为25亿美元,增长72%,相比去年同期的14.6亿
- 营业利润也提高到43%从26%


Facebook

Facebook Reports First Quarter 2014 Results

- Revenue was $2.50 billion, up 72% vs Q1 2013
- Revenue from advertising was $2.27 billion, up 82% vs Q1 2013
- CFO David Ebersman stepping down later this year; will be succeeded by David Wehner
MENLO PARK, Calif., April 23, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) today reported financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2014.
"Facebook's business is strong and growing, and this quarter was a great start to 2014," said Mark ZuckerbergFacebook founder and CEO. "We've made some long term bets on the future while staying focused on executing and improving our core products and business. We're in great position to continue making progress towards our mission."
First Quarter 2014 Financial Summary







Three Months Ended
 March 31,
In millions, except percentages and per share amounts

           2013
               2014
Revenue

$                  1,458
$                      2,502
Income from Operations




    GAAP

$                     373
$                      1,075
    Non-GAAP

$                     563
$                      1,374
Operating Margin




    GAAP

26 %
43 %
    Non-GAAP

39 %
55 %
Net Income




    GAAP

$                     219
$                         642
    Non-GAAP

$                     312
$                         885
Diluted Earnings per Share (EPS)




    GAAP

$                    0.09
$                        0.25
    Non-GAAP

$                    0.12
$                        0.34
First Quarter 2014 Operational Highlights
  • Daily active users (DAUs) were 802 million on average for March 2014, an increase of 21% year-over-year.
  • Mobile DAUs were 609 million on average for March 2014, an increase of 43% year-over-year.
  • Monthly active users (MAUs) were 1.28 billion as of March 31, 2014, an increase of 15% year-over-year.
  • Mobile MAUs were 1.01 billion as of March 31, 2014, an increase of 34% year-over-year. 

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Apple and Facebook will release quarter result

Tomorrow (23/4/2014) Apple and Facebook will release quarter result. Facebook is expected 100% growth for this coming quarter. Can fb strike it?

EPS est. EPS prev.
AAPL $10.21 23/4/2014 $10.09 23/4/2013
FB $0.18 23/4/2014 $0.09 1/5/2013

http://www.nasdaq.com/earnings/earnings-calendar.aspx?date=2014-Apr-23


Tuesday, April 15, 2014

GOOGLE 不一样的 stock split



4月3日,1200美元的谷歌一分二。旧的Class-A股票代码“GOOG”改为“GOOGL”,新的Class-C股票用旧代码“GOOG”,有点混淆。

股权


谷歌发行一股class-C给每股class-A和class-B的股东。

Sunday, April 13, 2014

夕阳无限好,只是近黄昏(油尽井枯)


(12日讯)今天首相署部长说我国只有剩下28年的石油和42年的天然气,那是根据日产576千桶来平均计算;石油储量57.9亿桶,天然气储量168亿桶。

很多人说从事油气工业是高薪,是十大高薪之一的职业。28年后油尽井枯的时候,我已经66岁,还好应该退休了,可惜的是不能把自己的技术与经验传承下去。


Tuesday, April 1, 2014

阿利投资组合2014三个月表现

三月已过,今年过了四分之一,审查季度投资组合的表现。
先看klci与DJI的表现,因为阿利组合里有60%在马股和40%美股。


KLCI与DJI的表现都是双行,年初回落,但二三月升扬。


阿利组合里看像增长了从288千到324千,其实不然,