十载投资,路在何方,扎根本土,放眼世界

Nuffnang

Monday, December 30, 2013

股海十年

人生有几多个十年(港剧:柴九的名句)。在股海漂浮了十年,还没上岸,我不是成功的投资者,写这篇文章是缅怀一下,也提醒自己,引以为鉴。希望未来十年能成功达到目标。

2004年初,刚刚大学硕士毕业踏入社会工作,第一份工是在家乡不远的义利(Yeelee)食油厂上班。是我第一次接触的上市公司。没记错当时股价大概1.25左右(2010 share split 1:2 & bonus 2:5),当时是一支长期沉睡的股票,还有时没有交易。我不敢买。

同年转去吉隆坡工作,在一间外资公司上班,Worley (currently called WorleyParsons),在澳洲上市的公司,2002年IPO,两年开了三、四番,再三年开29番($1.75 to $52),不可思议。我没有这公司股票,以前本地经纪行没有买卖外国股票。这股票跟我擦身而过。

2004年9月23日,我开了CDS account,正式踏入股海。第一次买进了MAGNUM,是听朋友说:这是蓝筹股,很稳,就买了。一年后卖出,亏了几百块。出师不利。第二个买进COMMERZ(CIMB前身),幸好有赚一点,来个开门红。

开了CDS account

当时就听过Fundamental Analysis 与Technical Analysis,也听过warren buffett大师。我就开始学习这两种技术,用FA找出优质股,再用TA找出进退场的时机。说起来也头头是道,娓娓动听,做起就背离原意。买进的股都是经纪,朋友介绍,然后自己去看看它的财报,不错就买了,没有深入研究。
和大马交易所的牛﹑熊留影(20-11-2004)

2005年,爸爸也把他当年的股票转给我,(97年的亚洲货币风暴,全部都变成仙股,输得很惨,连妈妈毕生的储蓄也输了,只剩下值几千块,从此他再也不敢沾指股票)。刚出茅庐的小子,只敢买蓝筹股,这年开始赚了十多巴仙,就很满足了。

2006年,胆子大了,开始玩仙股,因为仙股回酬很高,开始时小心翼翼的投注。这年综合指数破千点,在大牛市,我也赚了69%。破千点大关,我心想必有回调,就把部分股票卖了。投资额减少,所以赚率提高了。

2007年,去年的大丰收,这年双倍投资,也获得46%回酬。也是我最活跃的一年,共有87宗交易。学习什么是Option, Warrant, Call Warrant,很喜欢这种金融衍生品,用小钱赚大钱。亲身战场。在大牛市下,这年也是丰收年,赚幅是去年的双倍,因为投资额加码,把回酬率拉底了。

2008年,美国次贷风暴,马股也大跌720点,第一次见到大熊,单日跌幅超过100点,来不及回神,太快了。从赚46%转亏20%,跌幅66%!天啊,几年的累积,就这样蒸发了。不仅投资跌到低点,连事业,爱情也跌到低点。

马股在2008年,美国次贷风暴下,狂跌

2009年,大风暴过后,再整顿一下,重新出发。眼看美国股市大跌,AIG,Citigroup面临倒闭的可能。心想跌到几块钱,很平宜,当下就买进Citigroup,因该不会倒闭,可以翻身。原来战后的炭灰还是烫,会烧到手,又亏二十多千。幸好在马股有赚,其中的代表作是Topglov,挽回亏幅至-8%。爱情,事业都有新的开始。

2010年,综合指数节节上升,冲破1500点,我的投资转亏为盈,IOICorp,CIMB,KPJ贡献不错的回酬,但是贪心,想在LCL混水摸鱼,不但没得逞,这公司还清盘了。还好只是小投资,不至于毁大局,全年还有12%盈利。

2011年,次贷风暴后,持续两年复苏,今年调整年。今年转攻美股,卖掉Citigroup止血,看中iphone的疯驰全球,买进Apple股票,股价攀升到400美元,同年年抄,Steve Jobs 不幸病亡。担心这位苹果灵魂人物不在后,会打击苹果的未来,把Apple股票沽,转投Google和McDonald。虽然苹果和谷歌赚钱,可是被麦记拉低了。在马股方面,油气股Kencana,Dialog,Armada,Pchem通通都涨了,可是被Citigroup,Armada的Call Warrant和贸易风吃掉盈利,倒亏-5%。

迎接一个新生命,新开始,爸爸爱你

2012年,是个好年,迎接一个新生命,也第一次中IPO大马气体。整顿投资组合把大部分资金放在BJFOOD,OLDTOWN,这年股价翻倍。在加上PCHEM,GASMSIA,IHH。不只转亏为盈,48%的回酬,总价值破15万。

2013年,是刺激年,也是大选年,不少的传言大选日期,1月21日单日跌幅40点。最后大选落在5月5,可惜换不成政府,马股像吃了伟哥,隔空跳77点。8月份美联署放风声停止QE,全球股市震荡。后来又澄清,股市又反弹。手上的股票市值还差两万就达30万。主要功臣还是BJFOOD,OLDTOWN。今年杪还添加了ZHULIAN,WILLOW,MATRIX和美股的Visa。
十年的複合年均增長率(10yr-CAGR)大概是50%。当中包括调薪后的增加投资金,买卖回酬,股息。

十年的成绩

2014年,在未来这年的目标是成为半个百万富翁,就是50万的目标。现在相差目标是22万,如果要达到目标需要有75%的增長率,蛮难,但是不是不可能。十二万从现有股票增長,大概是40%,十万再从现金储蓄。希望2014年能成为半个百万富翁。

**后语**
十年后的经验,与理财心得:
1.储蓄——理财开始都是从储蓄,从零到10,从10到100,从100到1000……。没有当初的10就不会有百,千,万。而且没有储蓄习惯的人,赚多少花多少,不会累积财富。财富不是看赚多少,而是存多少。所以理财第一步就是储蓄。

2.学习——做工程师要有工程的知识,做医生要有医学的知识,炒粿条要有炒粿条的知识,投资也要有知识,不然就像瞒头乌蝇,乱乱撞。这门知识不是火箭科学,每个人都可以学习会。很多这方面的书籍,网络也有很多。

3.目标——目标有长期短期,比如目标是一百万,咋看很难。如果把它分成十个十万,再把第一个十万分成十个一万,再分成一千,就从储蓄第一个一千开始,容易多了。从一千投资,加上储蓄,很快就达到两千。再来第三千,第四千就比前面的第一千容易。

4.计划——有了目标就要有计划有策略,比如把薪金的10%或20%作为投资。再用模拟计算这计划是否能达到目标。如果模拟计算和目标差太远,即要调整,更改,不要等到时间过去才发现,就浪费时间了。

5.自律——自律是最重要的。很多人做事半途而废,有很多知识,有目标,又有好一套计划,但是没有自律,也是枉然。自律也是循环步骤,储蓄,学习,目标,计划,不停得重复。


接下来,学习风险管理,如何应对股市大回调。股市不可能一直上涨,在经济萧条时如何应对?还在钻研中……


还有更多你可能喜欢的文章在左上角【精华文章】里。
谢谢你的游览Ali blog。

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

靠股息退休,可能吗?怎样做?

有很多人的梦想,passive income来退休。

我用了ZHULIAN及DLADY来个模拟实验:
投资策略,本金:RM15,000 .每个月加RM1000。60个月,总资金74千

ZHULIAN (DY=3.4%), DLADY DY=(5.5%)




一年ZHULIAN 大概有九千多,DLADY 有15千。平均每个月700多到1200。还不能退休,但是很不错了,继续努力。再过多5年,就可以20到40千一年股息。40岁退休。

没有买卖建议,纯粹分享。


p/s: 抱歉,本人忘了ZHULIAN有红股(15/07/2010)二送一。



下载连线 link: 详细计算excel。多多指点。

Monday, November 11, 2013

五年达三百千,可能吗?怎样做?

最近看到一个部落格,“靠股息年轻退休”,可能吗?怎样做?
我想这不只是笔者,我,应该很多年轻人的梦想。passive income来退休。

笔者的计划是:投资起始本金:RM10,000 .每个月加RM500,目标:RM500,000(五年)。
如果用compound interest 来算,这个目标需要68%年率,看起来很高,如果 2019 达到300,000也很不错。三百千也要55%年率。还是很高。梦想破灭了?慢着,我们来看看真实的股票,能否达到。

我用了ZHULIAN及DLADY来个模拟实验:

根据5年的股价,ZHULIAN可以达到RM 198千,DLADY则达RM 165千。距离目标还有一段距离。




如果调整一下,投资策略,本金:RM15,000 .每个月加RM1000。那么ZHULIAN就可以达RM 345千,DLADY就RM 297千。三百千的目标是可以达成的。重要是有计划,自律。不是每个股票都能翻倍,挑选对的股。




p/s: Amendment, some minor adjustment for ZHULIAN, miss out Bonus share 1:3 ratio on 13/07/2010. Case 1 should be RM191,713, and Case 2 is RM336,077

Thursday, October 24, 2013

VISA: Q4 2013


October 23, 2013, its board of directors had declared a quarterly dividend in the aggregate amount of $0.40 per share. The quarterly dividend increase raises the annual dividend rate from$1.32 per share to $1.60 per share. payable on December 3, 2013, ex-date November 15, 2013

Q4 2013 Visa Inc. Earnings Conference Call at 10/30/13.

----------------------------------
RESULT (30/10/2013)

  • Quarterly net income of $1.2 billion or $1.85 per diluted class A common share, an increase of 15% and 20%, respectively
  • Full-year 2013 net income of $5.0 billion or $7.59 per diluted class A common share, an increase of 18% and 23%, respectively
  • The Company authorizes a new $5.0 billion repurchase program, in addition to the previously announced 21% quarterly dividend increase




-----------------------------------
24/10/2013: Received the VISA annual report 2012

Tuesday, October 8, 2013

超级工程#2:上海中心大厦

超级工程#2:上海中心大厦
The tallest (632m) green building equipped with 

  1. 15 off vertical-axis wind turbines generated 350,000 kWh
  2. double layer wind screen reduce heat exchange external and internal, reduce heat loss 50%
  3. rain water recycle system capacity equal 250 standard swimming pool.
Total energy and water saving 25%. 

Construction kick start 2008 Nov, Expected completion 2015

Sunday, September 29, 2013

超级工程#1:港珠澳大桥

超级工程#1:港珠澳大桥。30km bridge + 6.7km subsea tunnel, artificial island. Design life 120 years, stand for 8 magnitude earthquake, and 16 magnitude of typhoon. Construction started 2009, expected completion 2016.




Next: 超级工程#2:上海中心大厦

Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Buy VISA Inc



Expected earning will growth 50% yoy


Debt free company

UPDATE (10/9/2013):
Visa, Nike, Goldman Sachs added to Dow Jones Industry Index
BoA, hp, Alcoa are replaced. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-visa-nike-set-132500686.html

UPDATE(11/10/2013):
More than half credit card transaction worldwide payment are generated by VISA

UPDATE (30/10/2013):
Share Buybacks: Visa outstanding shares reduces from 1.08B to 787M shares since IPO 2008. It is significant reduced 27%.  Mean that the "value" of share is increased, instead of diluted, it become "concentrated".

 (Source: YCharts.com)

Wednesday, August 28, 2013

外资持股率

成也风云,败也风云。
水能载舟,亦能覆舟。

The same knife cut bread and finger.


Source:http://www.nanyang.com/node/543891

推出QE时大家唱衰,美国会倒,没有QE大家又怕,金钱游戏完了。对它又爱又恨吗?

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Invest Share or Property


This question is often asked. Invest in share market or real estate property.

Some answer is share, some said property.

We used the statistic data for comparison.

Scenario 1:  Buy a completed house at price RM 400,000.  pay 10% for down payment, the rest borrow from bank with 4.2% interest rate. The house is rent out with 3% rental rate. 5 years later sell the house, how much the investor gain.


Based on Malaysia Housing Price Index, the house price rise between 2 to 12%. The mean of 10 years is 5.6%.

After 5 years the house price rose to $561,000, sell it and reduced outstanding bank loan, thus simple gross profit included rental is $263,460. and net profit after deduct down payment and installment is $106,096. Does this profit return excited you?



Now, we compare what if invest in share market.


Above is past 5 years KLCI performance chart, assume same scenario with initial investment $40,000 and yearly saving $23,473 to investment, plus dividend yield of 3%.


After 5 year, the investment portfolio is appreciated to $310,891 and the net profit is $153,527. Amazing!

From the figure above shows invest in share market is better than property. Bear in mind, there is some risk in investment either share or property.

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Regulated Short Selling (RSS) Approved List

LinkBursa RSS Approved Securities 

No STOCK CODE STOCK LONG NAME
1 6599 AEON CO. (M) BHD
2 5185 AFFIN HOLDINGS BHD
3 5099 AIRASIA BHD
4 5115 ALAM MARITIM RESOURCES BHD
5 2488 ALLIANCE FINANCIAL GROUP BHD
6 1015 AMMB HOLDINGS BHD
7 6351 AMWAY (M) HOLDINGS BHD
8 6556 ANN JOO RESOURCES BHD
9 5015 APM AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS BHD
10 6399 ASTRO MALAYSIA HOLDINGS BERHAD
11 6888 AXIATA GROUP BERHAD
12 1899 BATU KAWAN BHD
13 5190 BENALEC HOLDINGS BERHAD
14 3239 BERJAYA ASSETS BERHAD
15 3395 BERJAYA CORPORATION BHD
16 1562 BERJAYA SPORTS TOTO BHD
17 5258 BIMB HOLDINGS BHD
18 5032 BINTULU PORT HOLDINGS BHD
19 8133 BOUSTEAD HEAVY INDUSTRIES CORP
20 2771 BOUSTEAD HOLDINGS BHD
21 4162 BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO (M)
22 5210 BUMI ARMADA BERHAD
23 1818 BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
24 2852 CAHYA MATA SARAWAK BHD
25 2836 CARLSBERG BREWERY MALAYSIA BHD
26 7076 CB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCT HOLDING
27 2879 CHEMICAL COMPANY OF MALAYSIA
28 1023 CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BERHAD
29 6718 CRESCENDO CORPORATION BHD
30 5094 CSC STEEL HOLDINGS BERHAD
31 5355 DAIMAN DEVELOPMENT BHD
32 5141 DAYANG ENTERPRISE HOLDINGS BHD
33 7277 DIALOG GROUP BHD
34 1619 DRB-HICOM BHD
35 3417 EASTERN & ORIENTAL BHD
36 8877 EKOVEST BHD
37 5205 EVERSENDAI CORPORATION BERHAD
38 5222 FELDA GLOBAL VENTURES HLDG BHD
39 3689 FRASER & NEAVE HOLDINGS BHD
40 5398 GAMUDA BHD
41 5209 GAS MALAYSIA BERHAD
42 3182 GENTING BHD
43 4715 GENTING MALAYSIA BERHAD
44 2291 GENTING PLANTATIONS BERHAD
45 7022 GLOBETRONICS TECHNOLOGY BHD
46 5020 GLOMAC BHD
47 5606 GOLDIS BHD
48 3255 GUINNESS ANCHOR BHD
49 1503 GUOCOLAND (MALAYSIA) BHD
50 7668 HAI-O ENTERPRISE BHD
51 3034 HAP SENG CONSOLIDATED BHD
52 5138 HAP SENG PLANTATIONS HOLDINGS
53 5168 HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BHD
54 5819 HONG LEONG BANK BHD
55 5274 HONG LEONG CAPITAL BERHAD
56 1082 HONG LEONG FINANCIAL GROUP BHD
57 5062 HUA YANG BHD
58 6688 HWANG-DBS (M) BHD
59 1597 IGB CORPORATION BHD
60 5225 IHH HEALTHCARE BERHAD
61 3336 IJM CORPORATION BHD
62 5215 IJM LAND BERHAD
63 2216 IJM PLANTATIONS BHD
64 1961 IOI CORPORATION BHD
65 4383 JAYA TIASA HOLDINGS BHD
66 5161 JCY INTERNATIONAL BERHAD
67 3476 KECK SENG (M) BHD
68 3522 KIAN JOO CAN FACTORY BHD
69 5027 KIM LOONG RESOURCES BHD
70 7164 KNM GROUP BHD
71 7153 KOSSAN RUBBER INDUSTRIES BHD
72 5878 KPJ HEALTHCARE BHD
73 1996 KRETAM HOLDINGS BHD
74 5097 KSK GROUP BERHAD
75 5038 KSL HOLDINGS BHD
76 2445 KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
77 2003 KULIM (M) BHD
78 3565 KUMPULAN EUROPLUS BHD
79 6491 KUMPULAN FIMA BHD
80 5843 KUMPULAN PERANGSANG SELANGOR
81 3794 LAFARGE MALAYSIA BERHAD
82 1643 LANDMARKS BHD
83 6645 LINGKARAN TRANS KOTA HOLDINGS
84 4235 LION INDUSTRIES CORPORATION
85 8621 LPI CAPITAL BHD
86 8583 MAH SING GROUP BHD
87 1155 MALAYAN BANKING BHD
88 3662 MALAYAN FLOUR MILLS BHD
89 3891 MALAYAN UNITED INDUSTRIES BHD
90 5014 MALAYSIA AIRPORTS HOLDINGS BHD
91 1171 MALAYSIA BUILDING SOCIETY BHD
92 5186 MALAYSIA MARINE AND HEAVY ENG3
93 3786 MALAYSIAN AIRLINE SYSTEM BHD
94 5077 MALAYSIAN BULK CARRIERS BHD
95 1651 MALAYSIAN RESOURCES CORP
96 6012 MAXIS BERHAD
97 5983 MBM RESOURCES BHD
98 4502 MEDIA PRIMA BHD
99 3816 MISC BHD
100 6114 MKH BERHAD
101 2194 MMC CORPORATION BHD
102 6459 MNRB HOLDINGS BHD
103 5202 MSM MALAYSIA HOLDINGS BERHAD
104 5703 MUHIBBAH ENGINEERING (M) BHD
105 3905 MULPHA INTERNATIONAL BHD
106 3859 MAGNUM BERHAD (formerly known as Multi-Purpose Holdings Bhd)
107 5073 NAIM HOLDINGS BHD
108 5509 NCB HOLDINGS BHD
109 5201 OLDTOWN BERHAD
110 4006 ORIENTAL HOLDINGS BHD
111 5053 OSK HOLDINGS BHD
112 6866 PADIBERAS NASIONAL BHD
113 1724 PARAMOUNT CORPORATION BHD
114 5657 PARKSON HOLDINGS BHD
115 7108 PERDANA PETROLEUM BERHAD
116 0047 PERISAI PETROLEUM TEKNOLOGI
117 5183 PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BHD
118 5681 PETRONAS DAGANGAN BHD
119 6033 PETRONAS GAS BHD
120 5075 PLENITUDE BHD
121 4634 POS MALAYSIA BHD
122 4065 PPB GROUP BHD
123 8869 PRESS METAL BHD
124 1295 PUBLIC BANK BHD (inc. Public Bank - F)
125 6807 PUNCAK NIAGA HOLDINGS BHD
126 1066 RHB CAPITAL BHD
127 5113 RIMBUNAN SAWIT BHD
128 5218 SAPURAKENCANA PETROLEUM BHD
129 5126 SARAWAK OIL PALMS BHD
130 7045 SCOMI ENERGY SERVICES BHD
131 7158 SCOMI GROUP BHD
132 9792 SEG INTERNATIONAL BHD
133 1783 SELANGOR PROPERTIES BHD
134 5517 SHANGRI-LA HOTELS (M) BHD
135 5173 SHIN YANG SHIPPING CORP BHD
136 4197 SIME DARBY BHD
137 5665 SOUTHERN STEEL BHD
138 8664 SP SETIA BHD
139 6084 STAR PUBLICATIONS (M) BHD
140 5211 SUNWAY BERHAD
141 7106 SUPERMAX CORPORATION BHD
142 6139 SYARIKAT TAKAFUL MALAYSIA BHD
143 5012 TA ANN HOLDINGS BHD
144 4898 TA ENTERPRISE BHD
145 5158 TA GLOBAL BHD
146 4405 TAN CHONG MOTOR HOLDINGS BHD
147 2054 TDM BHD
148 1589 TEBRAU TEGUH BHD
149 4863 TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD
150 5347 TENAGA NASIONAL BHD
151 7206 TH HEAVY ENGINEERING BERHAD
152 5112 TH PLANTATIONS BHD
153 5031 TIME DOTCOM BHD
154 7113 TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD
155 4804 TRADEWINDS CORPORATION BHD
156 5401 TROPICANA CORPORATION BERHAD
157 9059 TSH RESOURCES BHD
158 5148 UEM SUNRISE BERHAD (formerly known as UEM Land Holdings Berhad)
159 4588 UMW HOLDINGS BHD
160 5019 UNICO-DESA PLANTATIONS BHD
161 5005 UNISEM (M) BHD
162 2089 UNITED PLANTATIONS BHD
163 5142 WAH SEONG CORPORATION BHD
164 9679 WCT BHD
165 2976 WING TAI MALAYSIA BERHAD
166 7293 YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
167 3158 YNH PROPERTY BHD
168 4677 YTL CORPORATION BHD
169 2577 YTL LAND & DEVELOPMENT BHD
170 6742 YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BHD
171 5131 ZHULIAN CORPORATION BHD

Friday, July 19, 2013

Glossary

Abbreviation

CIMB : Commerce International Merchant Bankers
IOI : Industrial Oxygen Incorporated
IHH : Integrated Healthcare Holdings Berhad and changed its name to IHH Healthcare Berhad
KPJ : Kumpulan Perubatan Johor
PPB : Perlis Plantation Berhad

Monday, July 15, 2013

MH Platinum Residence

Location : Jalan Gombak, next to market (pasar)
No DIBS
No rebate
284 units
30 storeys
Freehold
7.5km from KLCC
648sf, 682sf (both 2 rooms) and 1018sf (3 rooms)
most unit comes with 1 car park
Price from RM342,000

All smaller units sold out 100% in one day. Only 1018 sf is available but limited unit only. No public launch also. Damn hot property.

The layout seem like low cost flat, but the developer is selling price at RM500 psf.
Or this is what called affordable house?

Floor plan




Wednesday, July 10, 2013

FREE Stock Market Software

Nice software to share, easy to use.


Features:
Stock Watchlist
Portfolio Management
Stock Alert
Indicator Filter
Stock Charting
Cloud Storage
Currency Exchange
Andriod available

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

IHH Healthcare Berhad

IHH (5225)



IHH is largest healthcare provider in Asia. Its segments include Hospital, Healthcare, and Education. Dual listing in Malaysia and Singapore dated 25 Jul 2012.

Below are performance of IHH in KLSE and SGX, approximate 40% since IPO price.