十载投资,路在何方,扎根本土,放眼世界

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Monday, September 28, 2015

投资房产,或股票?Invest Share or Property

两年前,Ali写过《Invest Share or Property》。有兴趣,可以看看。
早期Ali blog是以英文书写的,不过英文水平不是很好,读者也不多。今日重温一下旧文章,并为旧文章从新update一下。看看两年后的情况是如何。





『投资房产,或股票?』Invest in share market or real estate property

This question is often asked. Invest in share market or real estate property.

Some answer is share, some said property.

We used the statistic data for comparison.

Scenario 1:  Buy a completed house at price $400,000.  pay 10% for down payment, the rest borrow from bank with 4.2% interest rate. Total of annual installment is $21,126.  Let say, the house is rent out with 4% rental rate. 5 years later sell the house, how much the investor gain.



Based on Malaysia Housing Price Index, the house price rise between 4 to 12%. The mean of 10 years is 6.2%.

After 5 years the house price rose to $616,000, sell it and repayment outstanding bank loan, thus simple gross profit included rental is $313,113. and net profit after deduct down payment and installment is $273,113. Does this profit return excited you?




Now, we compare what if invest in share market.



Above is past 5 years KLCI performance chart, assume same scenario with initial investment $40,000 and yearly saving $21,126 to investment, plus annual dividend yield of 4%.



After 5 year, the investment portfolio is appreciated to $162,049 and the net profit is $16,421 only. It is much lesser than invest in property.

From the figure above shows invest in Property is better than Share market. Bear in mind, there is some risk in investment either share or property.


__________

两年前和两年后,两个例子得到的答案完全不同。两年前投资股票比投资房地产好;两年后却是投资房地产远比股票好。那是说明投资的TIMING时间很重要。当你在大牛市投资时,你很轻易的赚取丰厚的回酬。相反的,遇到熊市时,可能把几年以来所赚的都回吐。

虽然现在股市已经是步入熊市,而房地产虽然还未熊市,但是其成长明显的跌到5年低点。
无论投资股票还是房地产,需要Timing(天时),基本面/地点(地利),管理层(人和),缺一不可。有时候选到好公司好管理层(或好的房地产),在不对的时间买入,很可能也会蒙受亏损。有人一入市就遇到牛市,有者遇到熊市,缘分吧!

还有一点要注意,上面的例子里,投资房地产还利用了杠杆,放大其回酬。



【十载投资,路在何方,扎根本土,放眼世界】

更多Ali的文章:
Invest Share or Property
股海十年
★ 差一点点半个百万富翁

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